What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting ... |
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From the award-winning author of "Simon vs. The Homo Sapiens Agenda". ... I don't entirely understand how anyone gets a boyfriend. Or a girlfriend. It just seems like the most impossible odds. A perfect alignment of feeling and circumstances. Molly Peskin-Suso knows all about unrequited love. No matter how many times her twin sister, Cassie, tells her to woman up, Molly is always careful. Better to be careful than be hurt. But when Cassie gets a new girlfriend who comes with a cute hipster-boy sidekick, everything changes. Will is funny, flirtatious and basically the perfect first boyfriend. There's ... |
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In traditional societies, the individual exists only as far as taking its place in a group, a place that is often destined from birth in a social hierarchy. It is governed by the collective beliefs, rules and norms shared by all present that are not in dispute, because they come "from above" - transcendence based on social connections and "pre" - mythical past and valuable. The modern man of the XXI-the century chooses his preferred beliefs and values in a pluralistic world, where conflicting values co-exist and are subject to the critique of reason. The past is no longer a perfect world, ... |
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Leichte Lektüre für Deutsch als Fremdsprache Stufe 2 (ab A2). ... Frühlingsgefühle im Hause "Meier & Meier". In den Kindergarten von Iris kommt ein neuer Junge und Iris findet ihn sehr nett. Mit dem neuen Jungen kommt ein neuer Vater und den findet Veronika sehr nett. Auch Klaus Meier findet, dass das Leben zu zweit mehr Spaß macht! Willkommen bei "Leo & Co.", der unterhaltsamen Lektürereihe für Deutsch als Fremdsprache in 3 Stufen: Geschichten mitten aus dem Leben Mit Hörbuch und zusätzlichen Hörspielsequenzen Übungsteil mit Aufgaben zu Lese ... |
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Leichte Lektüre für Deutsch als Fremdsprache Stufe 2 (ab A2). ... Wir machen einfach schöne Ferien auf einem Hausboot, denken Anna, Paco, Felipe und Benno. Doch dann geraten die vier in große Gefahr. Können Leo und Klaus helfen? Willkommen bei "Leo & Co.", der unterhaltsamen Lektürereihe für Deutsch als Fremdsprache in 3 Stufen: Geschichten mitten aus dem Leben Mit Hörbuch und zusätzlichen Hörspielsequenzen Übungsteil mit Aufgaben zu Lese und Hörverstehen (Niveau A2) Mit Landeskunde - Informationen Аудиодискът към книгата съдържа пълните записи ... |
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Leichte Lektüre für Deutsch als Fremdsprache Stufe 2 (ab A2). ... "Eine Autokarosserie ist manchmal wie eine Skulptur!", findet Klaus Meier. Jeder Kunstform gegenüber grundsätzlich aufgeschlossen, begleitet Leo seinen Freund zu einer Oldtimer-Auktion nach Basel. Die beiden erleben eine aufregende Reise mit Hindernissen. Willkommen bei "Leo & Co.", der unterhaltsamen Lektürereihe für Deutsch als Fremdsprache in 3 Stufen: Geschichten mitten aus dem Leben Mit Hörbuch und zusätzlichen Hörspielsequenzen Übungsteil mit Aufgaben zu Lese und Hö ... |
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Leichte Lektüre für Deutsch als Fremdsprache Stufe 1 (ab A1). ... Leo ist krank. Zum Glück hilft Trude Sommer im Lokal. Sie kocht prima Hausmannskost. Aber die mag Leo im Moment gar nicht. Er will nämlich nicht nur schnell gesund, sondern auch noch jung und schlank werden. Willkommen bei "Leo & Co.", der unterhaltsamen Lektürereihe für Deutsch als Fremdsprache in 3 Stufen: Geschichten mitten aus dem Leben Mit Hörbuch und zusätzlichen Hörspielsequenzen Übungsteil mit Aufgaben zu Lese und Hörverstehen (Niveau A1 - A2) Mit Landeskunde - Informationen ... |
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What if being lucky wasn't just chance, but a skill you could master? Learn to identify and act on serendipity to lead a more joyful, purposeful, and successful life. Modern life is full of chance encounters, changing plans, delayed journeys, human errors and other mishaps. This is the hidden force that rules our universe: serendipity. But what if we could use such unpredictability to our advantage? Dr. Christian Busch has spent a decade exploring how, if acted upon, unexpected encounters can enhance our worldview, expand our social circles and create new professional opportunities. From couples who met during chance ... |
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One of the crucial questions, which emerges in the process of the EU expansion is "How to avoid the alienation of the values and rights from the vivid culture of the European nations?" No doubt, they should not be limited to formal principles of communication. The point is to determine what should be done within the frame of politics, economy, education, healthcare, legislation, art, etc. in order to implement the principles of the European culture as guidelines for European citizens. Discussing rights and values in the Enlarging EU, it is usually assumed that the new member states are going to adopt the ... |
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From the genius of New York Times bestselling author David Levithan , author of Every Day, Marly's Ghost and co-author of Nick and Nora's Infinite Playlist, comes a collection of short stories (tracks) celebrating love in all of its wonderful, life-affirming and at times heart-breaking forms. It's the perfect collection for Valentine's Day. A resentful member of a high school Quiz Bowl team with an unrequited crush. An extraordinary "snow day" that changes two lives forever. A Valentine's Day in the life of Every Day's protagonist "A". 19 Love Songs was born from Levithan' ... |
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How Entrepreneurial Management Transforms Culture and Drives Growth. Author of the international Bestseller "The Lean Startup". ... Entrepreneur and bestselling author of The Lean Startup, Eric Ries reveals how entrepreneurial principles can be used by businesses of all kinds, ranging from established companies to early-stage startups, to grow revenues, drive innovation, and transform themselves into truly modern organizations, poised to take advantage of the enormous opportunities of the twenty-first century. In The Lean Startup, Eric Ries laid out the practices of successful startups - building a minimal ... |
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Petar Beron worked at the Institute of Zoology and the National Museum of Natural History at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences as a biologist from 1963 to 2010. Specializating in acarology and biospeleology, he began exploring caves and cave fauna since 1955. He went on expeditions in New Guinea, Indonesia, Mexico, Cuba, China, Vietnam, on the Balkan Peninsula, in Corsica and South America. In his journeys, he discovered many new species of caves and animals. Author and co-author of many books and articles on speleology, zoogeography and acarology. The present publication contains data on 153 species not recorded so ... |
