What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting ... |
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"For a person to write a book like this, he has to love art, passionately and selflessly, and to love, of course, the artist as well. The author possesses these qualities in full measure. But even with the love, enthusiasm, and admiration that permeate the entire book, it in no way amounts to a glorification, veneration, or canonization of Zlatyu Boyadzhiev’s image. Quite the opposite - the author has succeeded in keeping a necessary distance, allowing him the opportunity to combine an up-close and a distant view of the artist. He doesn’t carve a monument, he doesn’t paint an icon; rather, he presents a dynamic image, ... |
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Box: 270 x 280 x 30 mm. Illustrator: Sarah Jennings. ... "Read and Play Princess" is the ultimate kids' activity pack - containing a story book, a puzzle book, board games and a puzzle - to keep boredom at bay for hours! "Read and Play Princess" includes everything your child might need inside a colourful play box – perfect for taking with you in the car, on holiday, or anywhere kids might need occupying. The beautiful 24-page picture book follows the story of an unconventional princess, providing a positive message for young readers. The Puzzle and Colour book includes activities such as spot the ... |
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Illustrated by Matilda Harrison. ... "The young man on trial was Obi Okonkwo, a Senior Civil Servant. Obi Okonkwo was accused of taking a bribe. "I cannot understand why you took this bribe", said the judger. "You are an educated young man. A young man of great promise." When Obi heard these words, tears suddenly came into his eyes. Obi had lost everything. His had lost his mother. She was dead. And he had lost the woman he loved - she had left him for ever. Obi Okonkwo had nothing more to lose." From the Book This book is in British English. Here you can find: points for understanding ... |
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Mirror, mirror on the wall... Who's the deadliest of them all? Once upon a time, a girl named Sophie rode into the forest with the queen's huntsman. Her lips were the colour of ripe cherries, her skin as soft as new-fallen snow, her hair as dark as midnight. When they stopped to rest, the huntsman pulled out his knife... and took Sophie's heart. It shouldn't have come as a surprise. Sophie had heard the rumors. They said she was too kind and foolish to rule - a disaster of a future queen. And Sophie believed them. She believed everything she'd heard about herself, the poisonous words people use to ... |
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New York Times bestselling author Tahereh Mafi . ... When you're hiding from a world that hates you, who would make you risk everything to be seen again? It's the year after 9/11, and Shirin has just started at yet another new high school. It's a difficult time, but especially so for a sixteen-year-old Muslim girl who wears hijab. Shirin is never surprised by how horrible people can be. She hides away, drowning her frustrations in music and spending her afternoons break-dancing with her brother. But then Shirin meets Ocean James. He's the first person in forever who really seems to want to get to know ... |
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He ran away to join the circus... Instead he's saving the world. ... Ned Waddlesworth has always considered his world to be exceptionally ordinary. Until the day he discovers it isn't. At all. Because on Ned's thirteenth birthday he discovers that everything magical he's ever read about or imagined is real. And without him, the world will soon be engulfed in monstrous beasts and beings. So with the help of a robot mouse, a girl witch and a flying circus unlike any other, it's up to Ned to swoop in and save the day! Roll up, roll up, and prepare to be amazed by Ned and the marvellous, magical, monstrous ... |
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And my toaster is taking over the world... By the winner of the waterstones children's book prize. Cover artwork by Robin Boyden. ... Luke’s dad has bought a lot of gadgets recently and not one of them works as it’s supposed to. Maybe it’s because a machine-from-the-future is stalking Bromley, playing havoc with all the tech and trying to stop Star Lad going on a date. Could this be the Rise of the Machines? Luke knows what he must do - he just needs his fellow SCARF members to help, or it will be the end of everything... ... |
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Tiny Changes, Remarkable Results. No matter your goals, Atomic Habits offers a proven framework for improving - every day. James Clear, one of the world's leading experts on habit formation, reveals practical strategies that will teach you exactly how to form good habits, break bad ones, and master the tiny behaviors that lead to remarkable results. If you're having trouble changing your habits, the problem isn't you. The problem is your system. Bad habits repeat themselves again and again not because you don't want to change, but because you have the wrong system for change. You do not rise to the level ... |
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In Search of the Recipe for Our Universe. We probably all have a vague idea of how to make an apple pie: mix flour and butter, throw in some apples and you're probably most of the way there, right? Think again. Making an apple pie from scratch requires ingredients that definitely aren't available in the supermarket, ovens that can reach temperatures of trillions of degrees, and a preparation time of 13.8 billion years. Inspired by Sagan's famous line, Harry Cliff ventures out in search of the ultimate apple pie recipe, tracing the ingredients of our universe through the hearts of dying stars and back in time ... |
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Through blood and sacrifice, Amora Montara has conquered a rebellion and taken her rightful place as queen of Visidia. Now, with the islands in turmoil and the people questioning her authority, Amora cannot allow anyone to see her weaknesses. No one can know about the curse in her bloodline. No one can know that she's lost her magic. No one can know the truth about the boy who holds the missing half of her soul. To save herself and Visidia, Amora embarks on a desperate quest for a mythical artifact that could fix everything, but it comes at a terrible cost. As she tries to balance her loyalty to her people, her crew, ... |
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Meet Roger. Skilled with words, languages come easily to him. He instinctively understands how the world works through the power of story. Meet Dodger, his twin. Numbers are her world, her obsession, her everything. All she understands, she does so through the power of math. Roger and Dodger aren't exactly human, though they don't realize it. They aren't exactly gods, either. Not entirely. Not yet. Meet Reed, skilled in the alchemical arts like his progenitor before him. Reed created Dodger and her brother. He's not their father. Not quite. But he has a plan: to raise the twins to the highest power, to ... |
