Making right desicions when you don't have all the facts. ... Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a ... |
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A world-class thinker counts the ways-100 in all-in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these thinking errors for better decisions and a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad-that is, irrational-when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as cognitive errors. Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all ... |
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This book was initially planned as a record of a series of lectures to my first classes of Bulgarian Philology, English Philology and Applied Linguistics, and Public Relations undergraduate and graduate students at the South West University of Bulgaria where, back in the early 1990s, we were to lay the foundations of an academic tradition in a fast changing world. It was meant as a record of the fast restructuring of our minds and attitudes in time of economic and sociopolitical transition and cultural transcendence, seen from a changing Bulgarian perspective where the world came upon our horizon English-speaking. The ... |
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Meg Long's "Cold the Night, Fast the Wolves" is a captivating debut about survival, found family, and the bond between a girl and a wolf that delivers a fresh twist on classic survival stories and frontier myths. On a frozen wasteland of a planet, a girl is on the run with a wolf who is born to be a killer, but bound to be her guide. As they fight to escape ice goblins, giant bears, and a ruthless leader intent on trapping them both, one question drives them relentlessly forward: where do you turn when there is nowhere to hide? ... |
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Sarah J. Maas 's sexy, richly imagined Court of Thorns and Roses series continues with the journey of Feyre's fiery sister, Nesta. Nesta Archeron has always been prickly - proud, swift to anger and slow to forgive. And since the war - since being made High Fae against her will - she's struggled to forget the horrors she endured and find a place for herself within the strange and deadly Night Court. The person who ignites her temper more than any other is Cassian, the battle-scarred, winged warrior who is there at Nesta's every turn. But her temper isn't the only thing Cassian ignites. And when they ... |
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Photo Forum Year Book. ... В албума са поместени 200 от най-добрите фотографии публикувани в най-големият сайт за фотография в България. Към снимките авторите им са споделили кратки истории "зад кадър", интересни факти при заснемането, използвани концепции, осветление, оборудване или трикове. По този начин албумът, освен за вдъхновение и радост за окото, е идеален учебник от практиката в развитието и обучението на прохождащи таланти или вдъхновение на снимащи любители. "Black and White and Color" е първият годишен печатен албум на Фото Форум, който съдържа в себе си 200 от най-добрите фотографии, ... |
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Koprivshtitsa is a picturesque little town-museum and is also a re serve of architecture and history, tucked away amidst the pretty rounded ridges of Sredna Gora Range. It is located at a distance of 100 km east of Sofia (the capital city of Bulgaria) and offers to everybody who vis its it an unforgettable stroll into the kaleidoscope of the past. The me andering, cobblestone-paved little streets that squeeze between the tall stone-wall fences, the heavy wooden gateways with little built-in doors, and the beautiful wooden houses - symbol of wealth and prosperity of their owners, the wonderful arched bridges over river ... |
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The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between. Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York's skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple's iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months. These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston's Big Dig? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In ... |
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It's better to be careful and do things slowly. Harvey the hare thinks he's the fastest and the best at everything! But sometimes it's a good idea to be slow and steady. One day Tilly the tortoise and Harvey the hare have a race. Who do you think wins? Read the story to find out! Grammar and structures: Present simple, Present continuous, Verb + -ing, Can /Can't for ability, Must, Comparative and superlative adjectives and adverbs, Positive imperative forms, Let's, There is / are. 200 Headwords. Level: Beginner A1.1. Illustrated by Andrea Rivola. The book is part of the Young Readers - Stage 2 A1 ... |
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This book is all about building relationships. With good relationships; personal and business success are easy. Dale Carnegie says You can make someone want to do what you want them to do by seeing the situation from the other person's point of view and arousing in the other person an eager want. You learn how to make people like you, win people over to your way of thinking, and change people without causing offense or arousing resentment. For instance, let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers, and talk about your own mistakes before criticizing the other person. Over 16 million copies sold. You can ... |
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A Select Your Own Choose-Venture! Blendin Blandin is searching for the legendary Time Pirates' Treasure, and he needs Dipper and Mabel's help... and yours, too! Journey through time and explore the dragon-infested medieval era, the Weird-and-Wild West, and the laser-and-giant-baby-filled future. You choose from multiple paths that lead to different wacky adventures! You might end up finding the greatest treasure ever known, or you could send the twins and Blendin into an abyss from which they will never escape! This all-new Select Your Own Choose-Venture time-travel treasure hunt book features thrilling ... |
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Конструкторът е част от серията LEGO: Technic, където ще намерите още интересни комплекти. ... Децата ще се впуснат в скоростни приключения с конструктора на LEGO. Той се състои от 810 части, с които може да се сглоби колата от легендарния филм "Бързи и яростни" - Toyota Supra. Тя разполага с 2 бутилки NOS в багажника, 6-цилиндров двигател и реалистични детайли. Предното окачване на колата може да се контролира чрез ръчка на покрива. Предният ѝ капак може да се отваря. Децата могат да разиграват ролеви игри с колата като пресъздават сцените от любимия си филм. Дайте им шанс да се забавляват и да развият ... |
